We are generating more food than at any point in human history, yet it still appears more vulnerable than ever. Post the Agricultural revolution it begs the question;
Did we domesticate food… or did food domesticate us?
So why does food insecurity persist?
Why do price shocks ripple across continents?
Why is volatility treated as inevitable rather than a failure?
Because grain is no longer primarily priced by farmers or harvests, it is now valued on financial markets, where futures trading volumes vastly exceed the physical grain actually produced. Food has become an asset class — and volatility has value.
And the physical flow of that food?
Concentrated in the hands of just four companies — the ABCD of global grain trading — quietly sitting between the field and the plate, shaping access, timing, and price.
Which leads us to the question underlying the data:
👉 If we’re producing more food than ever before, why are financial markets and a handful of firms allowed to decide who can afford to eat?
Hi Thin! Great article, and I agree with most of your analysis. Except, for the title! We do have an enormous production problem in that we are trapped in a production system that by and large is built on mono-cropping annual crops requiring huge inputs of water, synthetic fertilisers, herbicides and pesticides, and soil tillage. This prduction system is the root cause of the degradation of soils, water bodies, biodiversity, and most importantly the diversity of the soil microbiomes that are at the root of soil fertility and crop productivity. These record yields you speak about are built on an essentially extractive system, mining soils and water bodies. The big question is why we have abandoned investment in breeding perennial crops (check out The Land Institute) and perennial production systems? Because there is a vast agrochemical and seed industry that wants farmers to remain trapped in the use of their inputs which are harmful to the environment and to health. So yes, we do have a production problem, and it is vast and an enormous lock-in. Why is FAO not working on this? All the talk about food systems transformation is just empty words if we do not dare to tackle these lock-ins!
Hi Thin, thank you for the article and always debunking the common narrative/myth about productivity and hunger! Speaking of myths, your very last paragraph mentions beer and water safety, but beer or alcoholic beverages in general being safer than water in earlier times is actually a (very popular) myth as well. If you're interested to read further up on that topic, here is an extensive explanation arguing why that assumption/myth is wrong: https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/u5dxoy/how_did_medieval_europeans_stay_hydrated_drinking/i51hwa6/
Also, there are some areas in which we might consider returning to our ancestors' food systems! For instance, today's grains bred for high yield are less nutrient-rich: https://www.bbc.com/future/bespoke/follow-the-food/why-modern-food-lost-its-nutrients/
We are generating more food than at any point in human history, yet it still appears more vulnerable than ever. Post the Agricultural revolution it begs the question;
Did we domesticate food… or did food domesticate us?
So why does food insecurity persist?
Why do price shocks ripple across continents?
Why is volatility treated as inevitable rather than a failure?
Because grain is no longer primarily priced by farmers or harvests, it is now valued on financial markets, where futures trading volumes vastly exceed the physical grain actually produced. Food has become an asset class — and volatility has value.
And the physical flow of that food?
Concentrated in the hands of just four companies — the ABCD of global grain trading — quietly sitting between the field and the plate, shaping access, timing, and price.
Which leads us to the question underlying the data:
👉 If we’re producing more food than ever before, why are financial markets and a handful of firms allowed to decide who can afford to eat?
Hi Thin! Great article, and I agree with most of your analysis. Except, for the title! We do have an enormous production problem in that we are trapped in a production system that by and large is built on mono-cropping annual crops requiring huge inputs of water, synthetic fertilisers, herbicides and pesticides, and soil tillage. This prduction system is the root cause of the degradation of soils, water bodies, biodiversity, and most importantly the diversity of the soil microbiomes that are at the root of soil fertility and crop productivity. These record yields you speak about are built on an essentially extractive system, mining soils and water bodies. The big question is why we have abandoned investment in breeding perennial crops (check out The Land Institute) and perennial production systems? Because there is a vast agrochemical and seed industry that wants farmers to remain trapped in the use of their inputs which are harmful to the environment and to health. So yes, we do have a production problem, and it is vast and an enormous lock-in. Why is FAO not working on this? All the talk about food systems transformation is just empty words if we do not dare to tackle these lock-ins!
Hi Karel, I think your comment got cut off. I'd love to hear the rest!
I sent it via email. I am new to substack. I guess there is a word limit?
Where did it get cut?
It finally showed up! Strange...
Great article! Thank you for mentioning the recent Times article. Honestly, you could probably do a full article just in response to that piece.
Hi Thin, thank you for the article and always debunking the common narrative/myth about productivity and hunger! Speaking of myths, your very last paragraph mentions beer and water safety, but beer or alcoholic beverages in general being safer than water in earlier times is actually a (very popular) myth as well. If you're interested to read further up on that topic, here is an extensive explanation arguing why that assumption/myth is wrong: https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/u5dxoy/how_did_medieval_europeans_stay_hydrated_drinking/i51hwa6/